In 2013 Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne of Oxford University published a report titled “The Future of Employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerisation?”. The authors examine how susceptible jobs are to computerisation, by implementing a novel methodology to estimate the probability of computerisation for 702 detailed occupations, using a Gaussian process classifier.
According to their estimates, about 47 percent of total US employment is at risk. Although the report is specific to the US job market, it is easy to see how this might apply all over the world.
We extracted the jobs and the probability of automation from the report and have made it easy to search for your job. We’ve added some additional information from the Bureau of Labor Statistics to provide some additional information about the jobs.
Date: April 24th, 2018
I used this website in class during a discussion on careers in MIS. What I did was pull up the website and then I talked about this being based on research from Oxford University. I then said that I would put something in to start us going. I entered “Truck Driver”. The website pulls up a list of jobs that match that description. Before clicking on one of those from the list, we had a short class discussion about what we thought the probability was for automation. So, for truck driver we had already covered that driverless vehicles have progressed so much that Google has already driven 4 million miles without a driver, and that Volvo has already delivered a truck load of Coors beer in a driverless truck, As such, class thought that “long haul truck drivers” had a pretty high chance of being replaced by robots. We settled on 75% chance. Then we clicked on “heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers”, and the response from the website is that there is a 79% chance of them being replaced.
We repeated this with suggestions from class. Suggestions included Nurse (class thought low chance and the website says 0.9%), College Professor (we used computer and information research scientists, which class thought low chance and the website says 1.5%), pilot and so on.
Accountant comes out at 94%, which is a very interesting discussion for those in class who might want to study accounting.
Professional athlete comes out at 28%, which many thought way too high. I discussed how eSports is becoming huge, with professional teams and world wide competitions. The biggest athletes in South Korea are online race car drivers. With this knowledge, 28% might actually be low.